|

05-07-08, 09:37 PM
"While the violence in Zimbabwe fills our TV screens, in terms of commerce at least the rest of Africa is proving surprisingly resilient. Stockmarkets across the continent have remained fairly robust this year, a particular achievement compared with other emerging economies which have been struggling.
The region is becoming increasingly important as a source of raw materials, as commodities such as oil from Angola, gold from Ghana and copper from the Congo help meet strong demand from both developed and developing countries. The US has said it would like to source 25% of its oil from Africa by 2012, for example, while trade between China and Africa has grown tenfold in a decade and is expected to reach an annual $100 billion by next year.
Katanga Mining, a copper and cobalt producer mining assets in the Congo, enjoys such vast resources that it should have a mine life of 25 years or more. The Congo is a relatively a stable place to do business, and there is enormous potential to ramp up the mine's production and cash-flows. Katanga's share price, which is listed in Toronto, has not moved much
despite the company's improving prospects, and there could be extra to come as it looks ripe for takeover.
One of the big drivers of growth across Africa is the building of the infrastructure required to oil the wheels of business, such as airlines to take businesspeople to meetings and hotels to put them up - in place of the traditional guest house. In aviation, the big challenge in conducting business is the difficulty in flying from one country to another within the continent - travellers usually have to travel back to Europe to be able to fly to another nation, and reliable first world aviation services are non-existent.
Ethiopian Airlines has one of the most extensive networks in Africa with routes to 20 countries as well as Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Washington DC but it could be set back by the late delivery of its Boeing's 787 order. Two private rival carriers growing on the back of this boom are Afriqiyah and Dallo Airlines which both fly to a host of African nations, are growing rapidly and could come to market. However, there is still not enough capacity to meet demand.
AIM-listed specialist investment company Lonrho (LONR), the rump of 'Tiny' Rowland's once powerful international empire, has acquired 49% of the issued share capital of Fly54 in Kenya, a carrier with routes to six adjacent countries, and it is also building an airline from scratch using an ex-BA team.
Its management may have changed, but Lonrho's driving force is still to acquire a diversified range of businesses focussed on providing infrastructure for key businesses such as oil, aviation, hotels and agriculture and it is planning to boost the number of countries it operates in from 14 to 20 by the end of the year.
"Africa has massive potential to become the bread basket of the world," says Geoffrey White, Lonrho chief executive officer. "It has vast tracks of fertile land and good water supplies and the wherewithal that is coming from foreign international investment. There is so much space in relative terms."
Exports provide boost
Money made from exports is enriching the indigenous population with a corresponding boost for consumer plays such as food companies, brewers, banks and mobile phone providers. One interesting agricultural stock is Zambeef, a vertically integrated operation that raises, slaughters and packages the meat and hides, and also produces yoghurt.
Mobile telephony is set to explode as just 20-25% of Africans have a mobile phone. Mobile firms Safaricom - quoted on the Nairobi Stock Exchange - and Celtel, quoted on the Lasaka Stock exchange, have been much in the news following their massively oversubscribed flotations earlier in June.
Safaricom, East Africa's most profitable company with profits of $370 million last year, was oversubscribed five times as Kenyans queued in their thousands to buy the stock, a sign that investors have renewed appetite for Kenya's economy after violence in the country following elections earlier this year. Safaricom's strategy of targeting low-income Kenyans should help boost its customer base.
Celtel Zambia, the largest mobile phone operator in Zambia, commanding a market share of 78%, was oversubscribed three times. It has been extending its network rapidly, with a focus on the provision of high quality telecommunication services and customer care, full network coverage and value added services.
AccessKenya Group, Kenya's leading Corporate ISP, was also floated recently and now buys more than a quarter of all the bandwidth utilised in Kenya.
Return of the educated
"One of the exciting features of the region is the wealth creation and the emergence of educated young Africans who can build businesses and start making a difference," says Jamie Allsopp, manager of New Star's Heart of Africa fund. "Diaspora across the regions are coming back. Millions go to be educated in the US or Europe and work, perhaps in the banking system, and are now coming back to put it into practice on their own account."
"The continent is also beginning to add value to processes that were previously handled overseas. De Beers, for example, is opening a diamond sorting centre in Botswana around which will cluster independent diamond cutting and polishing businesses, which was previously performed in London."
Banks whose primary business is deposit-taking rather than the problematic credit-related banks of developed countries are very attractive plays on economic growth. Equity Bank of Kenya - listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange - is a straightforward deposit-taking and ATM play, whose 2007 profits jumped 118%, despite the additional costs incurred from opening 28 new branches, bringing the total to 98. Another recent issue is SIC, the dominant Ghanian insurance company, another play on the rising affluence.
The political backdrop is frail, however. Zimbabwe and Kenya both highlight the risks, and South Africa, the most developed nation, was the scene of over a thousand violent xenophobic attacks last month.
"Africa still gets a lot of bad publicity but the political position has made huge strides," argues White, adding that in his view the region's image lags three years behind reality.
For a diversified play on the region, UK-listed Lyxor South African ETF (LSAF) tracks the largest 40 stocks listed in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange."
|