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Post imported post - 29-12-03, 11:45 PM

By Ronald Brownstein LA Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON — President Bush (news - web sites)'s overwhelming strength among white men looms as a central obstacle between Democrats and the White House as 2004 approaches.



In an election season heavily shaped by terrorism and national security, several recent polls suggest Bush could dominate white male voters as thoroughly as Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) and George H.W. Bush did during their three successive presidential victories in the 1980s.


"Clearly, it is where the Democrats are going to have their biggest difficulty," said Ruy Teixeira, a public opinion analyst at the Century Foundation, a liberal think tank.


In the modern political era, Democrats never expect to carry white men, who reliably tilt Republican. But the emerging threat to Democrats in 2004 is that Bush will win white men so decisively that the party can't overcome his advantage with other voter groups that lean in their direction, such as minorities and college-educated white women.


Analysts in both parties agree that Bush is benefiting among white men from his aggressive use of force against terrorism and his alternately folksy and blunt "bring 'em on" personal style. Some senior strategists on both sides believe the risk to Democrats with white men could increase if the party nominates Howard Dean (news - web sites), whose opposition to the war, liberal positions on social issues and buttoned-down persona create clear contrasts for Bush.


"That's the best situation for us, and the worst situation for them, with this group," said David Winston, a Republican pollster.


White men compose just under 40% of the electorate, with white women just over 40%, and minorities composing the rest.


White men have given Democrats problems in presidential elections for decades. Since the 1970s, Democrats have won when they kept the Republican advantage within sight and lost when they didn't.


"It's a damage minimization strategy," Teixeira said. "If it's too much of a landslide with white men, it just creates a hole you have to dig out of."


But just reaching that minimal standard of support hasn't been easy for Democratic nominees. Republican incumbents Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 carried white men by 35 percentage points en route to landslide reelections, according to network exit polls.


In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Democrat Michael S. Dukakis by 27 percentage points among white men, the same advantage Reagan enjoyed over Jimmy Carter in 1980.


During the 1990s, Bill Clinton (news - web sites) significantly reduced those margins, losing white men by just 3 percentage points in 1992 and 11 points in 1996, according to exit polls. But Clinton didn't win a much higher percentage of the white male vote than Carter, Mondale and Dukakis did; the GOP margins fell in the 1990s because independent candidate Ross Perot (news - web sites) siphoned away so many white men from Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996.


With Perot off the ballot in 2000, the Republican advantage among white men ballooned again, as Bush carried them by 24 percentage points over Al Gore (news - web sites). That margin was just small enough to allow Gore to narrowly edge Bush in the popular vote by running strongly with other groups.


But now leading strategists in both parties say Bush has the potential to run even better with white men in 2004 — which could create a deficit too great for Democrats to overcome.


"I don't know if it can get back to the [Reagan] level, but he does have the potential of widening the margin from 2000," said Matthew Dowd, the polling director for Bush's campaign.


Stanley B. Greenberg, the pollster for Gore in 2000 and Clinton in 1992, agreed. "Younger, married white men are disastrously, overwhelmingly Republican," he said. "They are trending more Republican over time. Everything about George Bush speaks to them."


Recent polls underscore the challenge for Democrats with white men. In an ABC/Washington Post survey released last week, white men preferred Bush over an unnamed Democrat in 2004 by 62% to 29%, a head-turning 33-point margin; by contrast, white women gave Bush just a 10-point lead.


Similarly, a Pew Research Center for the People and the Press poll this month found Bush leading an unnamed Democrat by 30 points among white men and enjoying a 68% approval rating with the group.

Democrats note these gaudy numbers reflect the immediate boost Bush is receiving with all groups after the capture of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) this month. But even in September and October, when Pew showed the country divided exactly in half between Bush and a Democrat for 2004, and white women narrowly preferring a Democrat, the president still led among white men by 27 percentage points.

Dowd, the polling director for the president's campaign, said those numbers show that Bush is "solidifying" the support from white men he had against Gore.

"In 2000, he obviously did extremely well, and now on things they care about, these people have seen he's done what they hoped he would," Dowd said. "It is just an affirmation of what they thought they believed about him in 2000."

Bush's strength among white men derives as much from his personal style as his policy choices, most analysts agree. Blunt in his words, comfortable on his ranch, dismissive of ceremony, impatient with diplomacy, Bush fits "an old-fashioned male ideal, deeply embedded in our cultural mythology," said Bill Galston, a former Clinton advisor now at the University of Maryland.

The ideal "is that a real man is a man of few words and determined, resolute action: like in [the movie] 'High Noon.' And Bush captures this almost perfectly and effortlessly."

The president's black-and-white pronouncements on terrorism and war — from his promise to capture Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) "dead or alive" to his "bring 'em on" taunt to Iraqi resisters — which generate unease among many women and even some more affluent men, help cement Bush's attachment to blue-collar men, who, recent polls show, support him at higher levels than men with college degrees.

In the latest Pew survey, white men without college degrees preferred Bush to a Democrat in 2004 by 60% to 25%.

"I go back to the bullhorn in New York," said GOP pollster Winston, referring to Bush's speech in the rubble of the World Trade Center just days after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. "There was a sense this was a guy you would want to be in a foxhole with. I'm not sure who on the Democratic side at the moment is someone you would want to be in a foxhole with."

Bush is benefiting, too, from a political environment focused on terrorism and national security issues that highlight the aspects of his personality that many men like best. Men have traditionally been more inclined than women to support military action, and recent polls show white men significantly more enthusiastic about the decision to invade Iraq (news - web sites) than other Americans.

"He kind of runs a testosterone-driven White House, in terms of both the rhetoric and the dominant issue, which is war," said John Anzalone, an Alabama-based Democratic pollster. "It's a natural resonance with men, particularly white men. Usually the only thing that knocks that down for a Democrat is the economy."

Indeed, Democrats are depending largely on an economic message to erode Bush's advantage among white men. Paul Maslin, the pollster for Dean, said that if the former Vermont governor wins the nomination, he'll run much better with white men than analysts expect by offering them a fierce populist critique of the president.

"I believe that nobody has made the economic or special-interest case from the Democratic Party in a fundamental way, and we are going to do it," Maslin said. "We are going to go after Bush on deficits, on trade, on cozying up to corporations, on job loss, on all the hard stuff."

The key question for Dean if he wins the nomination will be whether he can establish enough credibility on cultural and national security issues to win white men around economic concerns — the strategy he suggested when he spoke of using health care and job loss to appeal to "guys with Confederate flags on their pickup trucks."

Maslin said Republicans are underestimating Dean if "they think they can characterize us as Vermont, gays, war, and it's game, set, match."

But other Democrats worry that if Dean's liberal positions on social issues, such as civil unions for gays, and his emphatic opposition to the war in Iraq allow Republicans to typecast him as a Northeastern cultural elitist, "he could get wiped out among [white men] not by a 24-point margin like Gore, but by a 30- or 35-point margin," Teixeira said.

Indeed, two polls this month pitting Dean against Bush gave the president crushing 36-point leads among white men.

Some analysts in both parties say Wesley K. Clark's background as a retired general might open doors with white men if he wins the nomination. But many believe that the depth of Bush's connection with these voters will create problems for whomever the Democrats pick.

"The notion that any Democrat is going to be able to close the male gap substantially may be wishful thinking because of Bush's strength," Galston said. "I think it is going to be tough for everybody."




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Post imported post - 30-12-03, 03:32 AM

MB...the Democrats are gonna have to speak to us and women in a way that will bring us out in droves....The state of the economy has to be the central issue because peeps in general don't seem to be connecting the dots with the war.

....to go after Bush's base support to me seems like a waste of time, this story and the personal encounters you spoke of proves that.

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Post imported post - 31-12-03, 05:57 AM

interesting post ashanti. surely though if history is good at repeating itself baby bush should not get a second foot in the door. as most presidents at the turn of the century rarely stay for two terms. but i guess with so many bushes in power it may be easier. i hope you guys get blessed with a president who believes in world peace and not world war


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Post imported post - 31-12-03, 06:16 AM

@ MB

Although she has the credentials...I don't think peeps here are ready for a female president plus too many Clinton haters.

LadyDay wrote:
i hope you guys get blessed with a president who believes in world peace and not world war

From your mouth to God's ears.
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Post imported post - 21-01-04, 09:51 AM





ZNet | Race



Racist Felony Disenfranchisement


by Paul Street; December 16, 2003



In a period of painfully close presidential elections, with the most dangerous White House in history hoping to extend its criminal reign, every American vote in 2004 is potentially a matter of life and death for masses of people at home and abroad. It is exceedingly significant, therefore, that 4.4 million Americans are disenfranchised due to a past or current felony conviction. No other nation imprisons a larger share of its population or marks so large a share of its population with the lifelong mark of a serious (felony) criminal record. According to the best estimates last year, 13 million Americans – fully 7 percent of the adult population and an astonishing 12 percent of the adult male population – possess felony records.


At the same time, no other democratic nation denies the vote to a remotely comparable share of its offender and ex-offender population. According to Jeff Manza and Christopher Uggen, the leading academic authorities on felon and ex-felon voting rights, "48 states disenfranchise incarcerated felons, 37 states disenfranchise felony probationers or parolees (or both), and 14 states additionally disenfranchise some or all ex-felons who have completed their sentences." America’s army of disenfranchised felons and ex-felons "are expected," note Manza and Uggen, "to respect the law (and indeed, are often subject to significantly harsher penalties and face a higher level of scrutiny, than non-felons). They are expected to pay taxes to the government, and to be governed by elected officials. Yet they have no formal right to participate in the selection of those officials or the public policies that allocate government expenditures." Among those expenditures we might include the hundreds of billions of dollars that American governments spend on mass surveillance, arrest, detention, prosecution, incarceration, and post-release criminal supervision.

[font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][size=2][size=3][size=3]
[size=3]


If we do not have an accurate analysis of the problem, we cannot possibly develop a good strategy to resolve it.
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Post imported post - 21-01-04, 09:55 AM

Please quote the entire article or provide a link to the original.


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Post imported post - 21-01-04, 10:01 AM

copied the whole article twice now and it is still not pasting in full...will have to go back and look for link to article


http://www.zmag.org/content/print_ar...p;sectionID=30



Kunjufu, how come it won't take the whole article? I'v seen longer?




If we do not have an accurate analysis of the problem, we cannot possibly develop a good strategy to resolve it.
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Post imported post - 24-02-04, 01:56 PM

February 14/15, 2004

Bush v. Kerry
The Power Elite's Dream Ballot


By MICHAEL COLBY

If you hear gleeful giggling from behind the curtain shielding the political elites from the mere masses, you're not alone. There's a party going on and we haven't been invited. It's a presidential election party, where the puppeteers of our democracy are celebrating an upcoming election that they can't lose. It's a contest between two of their own.

George Bush versus John Kerry is a dream ballot for those whom C. Wright Mills called the "power elite," that tight little club of economic, political and military leaders who truly rule the nation. The power elite doesn't care about political party affiliations. That's child's play. In their view, fools line up to vote while the real players decide who's on the ballot. And for some reason we still refer to the whole charade as democracy. The joke's on you.

Bush v. Kerry is simply nirvana for the bluebloods. As they say in the business world: it's a win-win situation. From their perspective, whomever places his hand upon the Bible (yes, the Bible) on January 20, 2005 doesn't matter because with a Bush/Kerry contest they're already assured there will be no meaningful change in America for the next four years. None. Zero. Zippo.

Before the delusional Democrats out there start peppering me with hostile emails about the absolute necessity of getting "anybody but Bush" in the White House, just stop yourselves long enough to consider these facts: Kerry supported Bush's war on Iraq; Kerry supported Bush's tax cuts; Kerry hasn't proposed one major social or environmental initiative in over 20 years in the U.S. Senate; Kerry hasn't put forward any meaningful policy initiatives in his campaign for the presidency regarding jobs or healthcare. Kerry's campaign seems to be all about proving that he qualifies as "anybody but Bush." And all that takes is a pulse.

Bush and Kerry are also, of course, both proud military men. Bush took the easy way out of the Vietnam War by joining the National Guard - whether he showed up or not is another matter. Kerry, as he's so fond of telling us, served his country by running gunboats up and down the rivers of Vietnam. Brace yourselves, folks, because the Bush/Kerry contest will be filled with assertions and accusations about who loves the military more.

Kerry is really confusing on the issue of the military, too. Before pro-military audiences, Kerry trots out his military medals (three Purple Hearts!) and talks tough about his "duty and service" to the nation. But then he'll stand before the Dean Democrats and talk about how he led the anti-war movement when he got home. Well, John, what's it going to be: duty and service or conscientious objections?

It's this kind of double talk that has littered the political career of John Kerry. He's always hanging around talking out of both sides of his mouth until it's safe to actually pick a side - and then only if he's forced to. Kerry doesn't need Botox injections; he needs a spinal transplant.

Then consider Kerry's oft-quoted attacks on "special interests." Apparently, his special interests are holier than Bush's special interests. The truth, of course, is that they share many of the same special interests, all to the detriment of we, the non-special people.

While it pains me to invoke the words of David Brooks, a conservative columnist at The New York Times, he did sufficiently lampoon Kerry's rhetoric on special interests in a recently published column entitled "Kerry's Special Friends." After detailing many of Kerry's special favors to the high and mighty, Brooks concludes as follows:

"You just ask David Paul, one of the big figures in the savings and loan scandal, if Kerry didn't make him feel special. You just ask the high-tech executive Bob Majumder how special Kerry made him feel, at least until Majumder was charged with 40 counts of conspiracy, witness tampering, fraud, tax evasion and illegal campaign contributions. You just ask the law firms, the brokerage houses, the oil companies, the <H.M.O>.'s and the drug companies, which have donated tens of thousands of dollars to Kerry.

"Oh, he sometimes pretends that he doesn't care about our special interests. He puts on that callous populist facade. But deep down he cares. Maybe he cares too much. When he's out on the stump saying otherwise, he's just being a big old phony."

Of the many similarities between the patricians Bush and Kerry, there's nothing more disturbing than their membership in the super-secret and super-elite Skull & Bones club at Yale University. The fact that both men are members of this club and neither is willing to spill the beans on any of its internal secrets and favors should speak volumes about the apparent "choice" this nation is being offered on the November ballot.

"America is about to choose between two presidential candidates," writes Sam Smith, editor of the indispensable Progressive Review http://www.prorev.com , "who belonged to an organization whose values were infantile, elitist, misogynist, anti-democratic and secret and whose purposes include the mutual support and protection of its members as they make their into the upper ranks of American society and throughout their adult lives. Far from apologizing for this, the two candidates refuse to give open and honest answers about their participation. Further, at least one of the candidates, Kerry, has retained a close enough relationship to the organization to have sought news members from among his young acquaintances."

If Bush v. Kerry is truly the choice being offered to the nation in November, we don't even have to wait for the voting to begin in order to declare the winner. This nation's power elites are not only poised for yet another victory, but they're thrilled by the prospects of four more years of calm, non-threatening waters from which they float their political boats.

Michael Colby is the editor of Wild Matters. He can be reached at: mcolby@wildmatters.org

Source: http://www.counterpunch.org/colby02142004.html


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February 18, 2004

Spinelessness and Credulity
Why is Kerry Getting a Pass?


By GREG WEIHER

I was listening to excerpts from a debate on "Democracy Now" the other day. On one side was Mark Green, Michael Bloomberg's opponent in the recent mayoral race, and John Kerry's New York campaign chair. On the other were Robert Scheer, the Los Angeles Times columnist, and his son Christopher who writes for AlterNet.

The Scheers' argued that Kerry should call for Bush's impeachment for lies he told in the run-up to war. Green pretty much labeled such an approach "wack-job" politics, and said it would result in Bush regaining the White House. In defending Kerry, Green painted him as the near twin of Ted Kennedy, and praised the stalwart service that both had given to Democratic causes.

Both sides' apparently agreed that Kerry was not culpable in voting for war since, like everyone else, he was deceived by the Bush administration. The comparison of Kerry to Kennedy made this particularly disquieting. As you may recall, Ted Kennedy did not vote to authorize Bush to attack Iraq. In Kennedy's own words, "[Bush] did not make a persuasive case that the threat [from Iraq] is imminent and that war is the only alternative."

What?

How is it that Teddy could resist the prevari-con necromancy? How did Teddy see through the befuddling loquacity of George W. Bush?

Well, let's take a look at what was known prior to the beginning of hostilities.

· The argument that Iraq sought enriched uranium from Niger was an inept fabrication

· The case presented to the U.N. Security Council by Colin Powell included information that was plagiarized and woefully dated

· The aluminum tubes imported by Iraq were not suited to the production of fissile material

· The widely publicized meeting of an Al Qaeda representative and an Iraqi diplomat in the Czech Republic almost certainly did not happen

There were CIA assessments that criticized the prevari-con's conclusions with respect to WsMD and Al Qaeda connections to Iraq. There were veteran diplomats and CIA insiders, like Ray McGovern and Greg Thieleman, who were vocally skeptical about the prevari-con intelligence vetting process. How is it that Kennedy could critically assess the available information but Kerry could not?

In fact, even after the war began, Kerry was a vocal supporter. At house meetings in South Carolina, Kerry avowed that Saddam Hussein was a threat to the United States and had to be removed. It was not until the major media jumped on the "no-WsMD" bandwagon that Kerry dared to differ with the Bushies.

The simple fact of the matter is that anybody who was paying attention should have had serious reservations about the case for war. A million marchers in New York did, and so did a million in London, and so did other millions in places around the world. Teddy Kennedy did. How did all of this elude Kerry?

This is not the only curious case of Kerry sliding under the press's radar. Much has been made of Bush family connections with the band of thieves that ran Enron, but Kerry has his own history of complicity with corporate malfeasance. He had close connections to David Paul, CEO of the failed S&L, Centrust. Paul was convicted of ninety-seven counts of bank fraud and sent to prison for ten years, and the failure of CenTrust cost taxpayers $2 billion.

Charles Lewis notes that Kerry has never been reluctant to accept money from special interests.

"Over the course of his senate career, [Kerry] has not been averse to taking campaign cash from the companies and firms with a direct interest in his work. Since 1995, he raised more than $30 million for his various campaigns, most of it from industries such as finance and telecommunications companies (which are overseen by the Senate committees he serves on) and the law and lobby firms that represent them."

It is not clear why the media are so reluctant to call Kerry on his pontificating about special interests. But it is possible that they are not asking Kerry about his complicity in the rape of Iraq because the answers might lead in embarrassing directions. A recent assessment by Michael Massing in the New York Review of Books documents the credulity of the mainline press during the run-up to the war. The reluctance of this same press to confront its sorry performance is apparent in the fact that Judith Miller still holds a job at the New York Times.

Miller presents a microcosm of the mainline coverage of the case for war. Her reporting style is to take whatever the Bushies say and relay it to the American people. This is not my description of her work, but hers. She has said, "my job isn't to assess the government's information and be an independent intelligence analyst myself. My job is to tell readers of The New York Times what the government thought about Iraq's arsenal."

This was her approach when she reported that Iraq was importing aluminum tubes for enriching uranium for nuclear weapons, one of her many stories that proved to be without substance. It also characterized her involvement in a particularly weird episode once the war was joined. Miller operated as an ex officio member of "Mobile Exploitation Team Alpha," an Army team looking for caches of WsMD in Iraq. Time and again, MET alpha undertook activities outside its formal writ because it would result in good stories for the Times. When MET Alpha was to be reassigned, Miller threatened unflattering coverage, and the order was rescinded.

The goofiest of all these episodes had Miller reporting that "a leading Iraqi scientist claimed Iraq had destroyed chemical and biological weapons days before the war began . . . the scientist 'had pointed to several spots in the sand where he said chemical precursors and other weapons material were buried'" (Washington Post, 5/26/03). In typical Judith Miller fashion, there was no attempt to consult other sources or gain independent confirmation of any of this. She "was not permitted to interview the scientist." She only saw him from a distance while he was in MET Alpha custody. The story ran on the Times front page and, of course, was entirely apocryphal. It is a close question whether the journalistic sins that got Jason Blair and Rick Bragg fired were more egregious than Miller's.

Like Miller, the American mainline press suspended disbelief, sidled right up to the Bush administration, and spewed whatever nonsense about WsMD the prevari-cons decided to put out. Like Miller, the corporate media parroted drivel about Scuds, about mobile weapons labs, about anthrax spewing drones that might appear over Milwaukee or Paducah. So the big problem for them now is this: if they start to give Kerry a hard time for his spinelessness on Iraq, they might just have to confront their own spinelessness as well.

Greg Weiher is a political scientist and freelance writer living in Houston, Texas. Excerpts from this article appeared previously on the OpEdNews website under the title "George Bush, the Democrats, and Revisionist History." He can be reached at gweiher@uh.edu.

Source: http://www.counterpunch.org/weiher02182004.html


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Post imported post - 24-02-04, 04:14 PM

Representative democracy as practiced in the UK and USA is fundamentally broken. It needs to be fixed and/or replaced.

This is why there have been from time to time in the UK, discussions of such things as proportional representation.

There are supporters for the more frequent use of referenda. It would have been interesting for instance, if prior to going to war in Iraq the British people had been given the opportunity to vote in a referendum on the matter.

There is a need for a more participative democracy. At this point though, it seems that nothing short of a revolution will bring this about. History tells us however that revolutions are subject to the law of unintended consequences and that there are no guarantees that they will prove to be beneficial in the long run.

One salient example is Haiti, it has not been able to truly enjoy the fruits of its democracy since its own revolution due to internal class/racial warfare much exacerbated by external hegemonic interference.


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