http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4303550.stm

They have really all got themselves in a stew over this one.They have had Turkey jumping through hoops for years, (as with any candidate for membership) This process of them joining has been slowly moving forward but now it's just getting too close, because Turkey has negotiated the hoops successfully, something that may not have been predicted 20 years ago, and the rest of Europe is panicking, with Austria being held up as the spoiler.

Austria (for instance)can't say they reason they don't want Turkey is'it's coz you're not quite white' (or that you are muslims), so they say they are objecting to turkey becoming full members of the grounds that it won't be good for Turkey. (that was in the link coltrane gave) That gave me a laugh, and is I suspect the nature of the hypocrosy Coltrane was referring to (?)

It isn't just Austria thats objecting though. I think something like 70% of Brits, and similar high figures elsewhere in Europe also don't think it would be in Turkeys best interests (ha!)to join.

In France they voted against the draft EU constitution, even though a separate plebicite was offered at a later date which would 'deal' with this issue. As so often with referendums, people ignored this and the possibility of Turkish membership inperhaps 10, or I have heard even 20 years in the future, (because they still have a few hoops to get through) played a big part in the 'no' vote. (There were other factors, but everyone I spoke to cited it as one of their main reasons for voting no)

It's an interesting situation, the vast majority of populations are against it, (racism/islamophobia combined) while 24 out of the 25 members of the EU (the governments, that is) are theoretically in support, along with G Bush who naturally is very interested in the strategic implications of Turkish membership and sois also keen for Turkey to join.

This one will run and run.

I actually see it ending in one of two ways, and the dead line for it ending will be once Turkey is ready to join the EU. Once Turkey has closed all chapters of the negotiations with the EU except for Cyprus the pressure will be on to find a solution for both sides. For Turkey the pressure will be that without recognising southern Cyprus they wont be able to join the EU, which they are loathed to do. For the Greek Cypriots the pressure will be that if Turkey decides to hell with the EU or if it decides to unilatrally recognise the southern part of the island, then they loose all leverage they have over Turkey, which will mean that the TRNC will stay a seperate entity and in the fullness of time will eventually be either subsumed into Turkey or recognised as a seperate state internationally and then subsumed into the EU.

So the question is who blinks first? Both sides are running out of time. The Greek Cypriots need to keep Turkey's membership ambitions alive if they want to extend their control over the north of the island, but at some point for those membership ambitions to remain alive Turkey will have to recognise Southern Cyprus and normalise its relations with it. As soon as it does this the Greek Cypriots can no longer prevent Turkey from joining the EU which means that they loose all leverage over the TRNC. Turkey on the other hand, is desperate to avoid recognising a divided Cyprus and so they want a solution before the dead line for recognition occurs.

My hunch is that Turkey will blink first. I think they will unilaterally recognise Soutern Cyprus as a soverign state, which will satisfy the EU, but they will also declare that they still recognise TRNC. If that happens before the Greek Cypriots get around to unifying the island under some plan or other acceptable to both sides then they are stuffed, as there will then be no incentives for the TRNC, or Turkey, to push for reunification, as the TRNC will have all the access to the EU it could wish for by trading through Turkey. After a time the situation would just become embaracing and the EU and Southern Cyprus would be forced into recognising the soverign state of the TRNC and bringing them into the EU as a full member in their own right.

If my hunch is wrong and the Greek Cypriots actually manage to reunify the island in some way before this point in time, then the bone of contention dissappears and Turkey will be again free to join the EU, and sometimes its better to play the game of wait and see

Ah......Cyprus,

I am lazy and that aspect of it all was not foremost in my mind, in fact you just reminded me of it.

I knew Turkey would have to recognise Southern Cyprus - somewhere in the back of my mind I had an impression they had publicly acknowledged that, but it's not an area I know much about.

As you said, sometimes it's better to play wait and see. The potential time scale of all the barriers (internal and external factors and forces) to Turkey gaining membership helps there.

Still laughing about the 'priveliged partner' or 'associate member' tags people are suggesting for Turkey. What does that mean? I can't remember any other country being offered partial membership.

Let's neglect the political and economical pros and contras but i'd would like to hear your personal opinion...Is Turkey really a european country?

I'd say no! Neither the economical, political, cultural nor geographical background can be regarded as "european" therefore i can understand that the majority of european citizens now starts to pose the "Is Turkey really Europe"-question which must be denied. The EU is more than just an economical union, it also reflects the European spirit, for example, to stop the negotiations over Turkey THE MAJORITY of the members were willing to accept a paragraph in the constitution* which indirectly made Christianity the official religion of Europe "united under one and the same god" and Turkey might have a christian minority but you do have regions where Christians are discrimated....So can a muslim state be part of the European spirit?....just my two cents...and willing to hear/read your views


*it was vetoed by Germany

Turkey needs to be apart of the EU. I dont think its due to being Muslim solely. Due to geopolitics in that region Turkey holds a strategic position in maintaining the Suez Canal. They also have several treaties due to the Suez Canal with many current member countries of the EU. In addition oil pipelines are being built to pump oil from Mideast to Turkish ports. This represents more gain than loss in my opinion.

Huskagee,

I just can't make up my mind about it. I have (or certainly have had) all the same doubts as you do, but that response was based just on looking at the map, not even considering the other factors you mentioned.

On reflection I think the conditions for entry are so strict that if Turkey meets them, (including acting to stop attacks on christians as minority worshippers and other human rights issues) then their eventual entry should pass off without problems in and of itself.There are millions of Muslims living in Europe already.

I think 'people' are just freaking out that 70 million muslims will be joining at once, and I don't discount the possibility of massive and perhaps even violentprotests on that basisalone, though it may not be played that way.

Sorry, short answer, out of time

I don't want to see europe islamicised.

They are just begining to get over their hangover from christianity.

To me it would be like going backward for europe.

I dislike the three monotheistic religions - judaism, christianity, and islam. In my opinion they have disqualified themsleves for the future.

I want to see a multi ethnic europe but I have very specific ideas about culture.

Heard Austria's sudden u-turn on negotiations with Turkey has a lot to do with the opening up of negotiations with Croatia which had been closed due to the lack of progress capturing general Ante Gotovina, for the war crimes tribunal.

@umbrarchist



Johnee is a troll