Daily Independent Online.


[align=right] Wednesday, March 15, 2006[/align]

Obasanjo: A President against the People

By Iyobosa Uwugiaren, Assistant Editor, Abuja

The script was written long time ago by desperate power seekers for President Olusegun Obasanjo. And perhaps, because of the huge benefit of the project to Mr. President, he had no problem accepting to finance the interpretation of the script but, on one condition: it would be wrapped in secrecy from the beginning.

Indeed, as designed by the script writers, it was a desperate agenda that from day one needed to be achieved by "any means necessary". But because of the volatile, unpredictable nature of the issue, nobody was ready to admit the issues publicly until it got to a point the designers could no longer hide it: the elongation of President Obasanjo's tenure, now popularly know as 'third term agenda'.
Early in 2004, some sound political minds, who know too well the inner political thinking and calculation of the President, had alerted the nation about the secret plans by Obasanjo to elongate his tenure. For many people then, the statement was unthinkable. Indeed, those who raised the issue were labeled as "alarmists"- with criminal intention to distract the attention of the President from his "noble socio-political and economic reforms". Why should Obasanjo, who has been so lucky in his life, would want to disrupt all he has achieved? Many people had asked.
Indeed, the alarmists were later targeted by the state security agents and aides of the presidency as people working for some unknown groups who were out to derail the nation's nascent democracy. "They will not succeed", Obasanjo's men had prayed.
Indeed, Mr. Femi Fani-Kayode, the passionate and emotional spokesman for President Obasanjo, had said "the President was too focused to be engaged in the rumoured campaign for the extension of his tenure". Not even Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who had long time ago indicated his interest to take over from his boss, could believe such political moves by his master.
But, it did not take too long a time before the cloud over the agenda started to disappear, revealing the picture of what to come when Mr. President, who had consisted remained furious against any debate or call for a Sovereign National Conference or Constitutional Conference, woke up one morning and muted the idea of Political and Constitutional Reforms Conference. The questions then were: what has happened? What scrawled the mind of President Obasanjo in favour of the agitation by the people? What is he up to this time around?
However, it took just few days for the critical minds to begin to suspect what the President was up to. To be sure, the structure of the conference, the mode of selecting people for the conference, some of the characters were invited by the President to constitute the conference were enough to let the people into the agenda of Obasanjo - a selfish political agenda.
However, in spite of the strong opposition by the civil society groups against it, the conference went ahead. Many aggrieved groups and geo-political zones saw the conference as a rare opportunity to dramatise their problems. But, against the design of Obasanjo's strategists, the conference was hijacked. All attempts by the President's men to smuggle in recommendation for extension of the President's tenure were resisted by the delegates, especially those from the northern part of the country. However, he never gave up. There were other options available to him.

An Extremely Hard PDP For Third Term?
For Obasanjo to actualise his agenda, he was perhaps aware of the importance of the party structures. In other words, he was very conscious of the need to have a firm control of his party, the People Democratic Party (PDP). True, sometime in November, 2005, the president had informed his party members in his hometown, Abeokuta, Ogun State that he wanted a PDP that is "extremely hard, a party that is ready to serve the people and the services must be obvious". And he may have been able to convince himself that, the only way for him to have that kind of party was to dislodge the perceived enemies in the party by any means necessary.
Yes, he got what he wanted through what his strategists later called "party reforms". The import of that reforms today is that Obasanjo's men are now in total control of the PDP's structures at all levels: ward, local, state and national, leaving Vice President Abubakar and his teaming supporters, including many governors, with option of forming their own party.

Taking The Battle to The National Assembly
When all the moves to give legitimacy to Obasanjo's agenda were aborted at the conference, it was expected by many political experts that the battle would shift to the National Assembly. Suddenly, the Senator Ibrahim Mantu-led National Assembly Joint Committee on the Review of the 1999 Constitution (JCCR) that was before now starved of funds and rendered useless was revived with billions of naira from the Presidency.
Soon, a timetable for the constitution amendment was drafted and ratified at the National Assembly. What followed was an extremely guarded public hearing on the constitution amendment in the six geo-political zones against the states as required by law of the land.
In some states, especially in the South-West geo-political zone, where Obasanjo comes from, some financially-induced groups were hired to canvass a third term at the public hearing for the president. And they did that with the full protection of the state security agents while those who came to demonstrate against it were arrested, clamped into inhuman detention for about two weeks by the same security agents and later charged them to court for public disturbance.

Senator Mantu-led Gang And Its Port Harcourt's Deal
No national issue has generated emotional sentiments and robust debate in the last few days than the seemingly unpopular decision by Senator Mantu-led gang. Against all known democratic procedures, Mantu and his cohorts adopted a recommendation that the tenure of the President be elongated from two to three terms of four years each. The legal implication of that adoption is that, Section 137 sub-section 1(b) of the 1999 Constitution, which limits the tenure of the president to a maximum of two terms of four years each be amended to make room for Obasanjo to recontest in 2007.
While political scholars say the spirit and letter behind the adoption of extra four years for the presidency negate of all known democratic norms and values, the method used may have shocked many sound minds. To be sure, the decision was arrived at by mere voice vote, even when there were dissenting voices. The rules of the Senate and the spirit of the constitution say where there is dissenting voice on constitutional matters, the presiding officer shall call for a division to allow for a head count, to accentuate those truly for and against the matter.
The motion for adoption of the controversial section was moved by a much known apologist of Obasanjo - a member of House of Representatives representing Abia State, Mao Ohuabunwa, and seconded by his colleague from Ogun State, Abiodun Akinlade.
Report said Mantu was about to subject the motion of his men to voice vote when Senator Uche Chukwumerije and Senator Olorunnimbe Mamora vehemently opposed it. Apparently overwhelmed by the two senators' anger, Mantu at that point was forced to recognise Chukwumerije to raise his counter-motion, which was seconded by Mamora. In line with the Senate rules, Mantu was bound to cause division to enable him get those for and against the matter. But he chose to put the question to Yes or No vote and expectedly ruled in favour of Yes votes. Daily Independent gathered that all civilised moves by Senator Bello-Bunza to call for a division to allow for a head count was "arrogantly rebuffed" by Mantu, who was surely interpreting the political script of his supposedly pay master. The decision of Mantu-led gang may have gladdening the hearts of Obasanjo and his men.

The Final Political Battle
While Mantu and his gang may have left the aggrieved lawmakers to be agonising over their political wound, Senator Chukwumerije and his colleague, Dasandau, who doubles as the Secretary of the Northern Senators Forum, told journalists during the week that they would laugh last, as they would be waiting for the pro-third term lawmakers at the floor of both the Senate and House, where the final decision will be taken. The procedure for constitutional amendment requires majority of the both chambers-the Senate and the House of Representatives and 2/3 of the Houses of Assembly across the country to endorse the amendment before it becomes law. However, if anti-third term group thinks it will have an easy ride against Obasanjo's men, it better think twice. Sources say Obasanjo's desperate men are also making moves to build on their achievements so far.

Moves to Cage the Lawmakers:
The Anenih and EFCC's Roles
With huge amount of money at their disposal coupled with their full control of coercive security apparatus, Daily Independent gathered that Obasanjo's men have moved dreadfully to cage the lawmakers in their moves to override the recommendations of Mantu-led committee. Chief Tony Anenih, the PDP Board of Trustees Chairman, and Nuhu Ribadu, Chairman of the dreadful Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) are alleged to be co-coordinating the onslaught against the antagonists of the third term tenure. Those who know their working said their strategies include "financial inducement, threat, blackmail, moral suasion, and promise of return tickets to their political offices and other plum positions".
For example, source told Daily Independent that Chief Anenih in a meeting with members of the House recently allegedly promised each member who signs for the third term project a huge sum of N70 million and automatic ticket to the House while their counterparts in the Senate are to collect N100million each. Over 250 members of House were said to have so far signed for third term, including members of The 2007 Project - the anti-third term group in the National Assembly.
Also, to ensure that governors of various states are whipped into line, the presidency is said to have sent Ribadu after the corrupt ones and the effort appears to be yielding dividends. To be sure, four governors, who initially submitted position papers against the third term project, were said to have changed their position papers recently in Port Harcourt in support of the third term after seeing the EFCC's reports which expose their financial deals. Under these situations, political observers doubt if the lawmakers and some governors would be able to resist the Obasanjo's agenda.

The Opposition
And Price of Third Term
As Obasanjo and his political foot soldiers advance to the territory of their enemies towards achieving their set goal, there appears to be a huge price the country may have to pay for the unpopular political agenda. Apart from the swelling internal opposition that may soon disrupt the socio-political and economic activities in the country, the international community has started to show huge concern about the political moves by the President to "force, corrupt or blackmail" the legislative organ of government to amend the constitution in a manner that will allow him to seek third term.
No action could better confirm the worry and concern of the U.S government than the statement recently made by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte.
The US highest intelligence officer had declared before the American Senate Committee on Armed Services recently that the alleged third term plot by President Obasanjo had harsh prospects for the Nigeria. "Speculation that President Obasanjo will try to change the constitution so he can seek a third term in office is raising political tension and, if proven true, threatens to unleash major turmoil and conflict," the intelligence officer stated.
Negroponte, a known close associate of President George W. Bush of U.S, who said the third term plot had "no tiding", warned that such a tenure extension could lead to a major crisis not only in Nigeria but also in the whole of West Africa.
His words: "The most important election on the African horizon will be held in spring 2007 in Nigeria, the continent's most populous country and the largest oil producer." Negroponte suspects the vote has the potential to reinforce a democratic trend away from military rule, or it could lead to major disruption in a nation suffering frequent ethno-religious violence, criminal activities, and rampant corruption.
If the statement of Negroponte is to be taken very seriously, it appears the U.S is angry with Obasanjo over his political agenda. If so, political experts say "the States is surely angry with the right person at the right time, at right way and for the right purpose". To most political experts, the position of the United States over the third term agenda reflects the popular view of many people in the country that the third term plot is likely an "invitation for socio-political and economic anarchy in a fragile democratic nation like Nigeria".

Local Opposition Groups Speak
Reacting to the warning by the United States, the former governor of Kaduna State and chairman of the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), Alhaji Balarabe Musa, said his group's consistent fear that Obasanjo is leading the country to another civil war by his third term project has been confirmed by the U. S. "The U.S. is telling him (Obasanjo) that his third term ambition is dangerous for him and them- the U.S government. Since President Obasanjo is the keeper of the U.S government's political and economic interests in the country, they are telling him that his third term plot is endangering their interests", the chairman of the opposition parties in Nigeria stated.
Musa's premise is that Obasanjo had all the opportunities, since 1999, to do whatever he wanted to do but "failed woefully". The radical politician is of the view that the on-going process for constitution amendment is a plot to postpone the 2007 elections, adding that the time is too short for the government to carry out any useful constitutional reform in line with the yearnings and aspirations of the people.
Also, the National Democratic Party (NDP) and the Movement for the Restoration and Defence of Democracy (MRDD) have accused Obasanjo of having an agenda to become "Nigeria's life president". In particular, National Chairman of the MRDD, Alhaji Muhammed Jimeta Gambo said they have been vindicated by their position that the president wants to perpetuate himself in power for life.

The Price of Obasanjo's Ambition
Political experts, who interpreted the security reports of the U.S as it affects Nigeria, said America may have linked the terrible and frightening security situation in the Niger-Delta - the consistent attacks on oil facilities and the frequent kidnapping of foreign oil workers and the recent ethnic-religious crises in the country to the "inordinate and unwarranted ambition" of President Obasanjo towards 2007.
The National Chairman of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and elder statesman, Chief Sunday Awoniyi, had also expressed worry about the ambition of Obasanjo. The former Private Secretary to the late Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello, who described Obasanjo as "our modern day budding Hitler" alerted on the dangers of tyranny and dictatorship staring the nation in the face on account of Obasanjo's leadership. He urged leaders and well meaning Nigerians to stand up and be counted in the fight to nip the third term project in the bud.
He added: "The nation is in very, very grave danger; anybody who is in doubt about tyranny and dictatorship staring us in the face step by step should go and read how Adolf Hitler became the dictator of Germany using thugs, murder, terror, rigged election and subversion of the very constitution that brought him into power until a stage was reached when leaders did not stand up."
The European countries are also said to be strongly against the President's move because of the socio-political and economic negative impacts it will have on the nation and the global oil market. Nigeria is the largest producer of oil in the African and the sixth in the world.
The reason for linking the on-going activities of the militants in the Niger-Delta to the current political situation in the country may have been informed by the group's recent press statement. The hostage takers, who recently released foreign oil workers, were quoted as saying that they would continue with their campaign of kidnapping and sabotage against foreign oil investors until their demands are met. What are the demands? They include greater local autonomy over the region's oil wealth and the release of the impeached Governor of Bayelsa State, DSP Alamieyeseigha and Mujaheed Asari Dokubo, leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Forces, who is facing treason charges in court. The demands of the audacious militants may have been informed by their belief that the former governor and Asari were crushed to their present state because of their perceived opposition to the third term agenda of President Obasanjo.
In addition, the international community may have bought the position of General Muhammed Buhari recently that the ethno-religious crisis that cropped up in some northern parts of the country, which led to the loss of many innocent souls, especially southerners, was fired by the third term project of Obasanjo.
In their efforts to sell the third term agenda to the public, not many people doubt that the promoters of the project would have to confront swelling opposition groups, including the Afenifere, the Vice President, Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammed Buhari's factors, Arewa Consultative Forum, (ACF) and other members of the civil society groups.

The Fear Among Third Term Promoters
While the likes of Mr. Fix-It, who is also Obasanjo's Man Friday, Chief Anenih, is too sure of the success of the third term project, there are fears among some interpreters of the third term script, that their project may have suffered some setback. Those following the project have blamed President Obasanjo's "coercive strategy" and the seemly arrogant posture by Anenih who say that not all governors would benefit from the third term project, for the setback.
To be sure, not many people doubt that in several political moves to sell his third term project to the people, the President had employed naked power- use of instrumentalities of the state agents, such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the State Security Services (SSS) and the Nigeria Police Force to either blackmail or force people to fall into the project. And along the line, some invisible negative effects manifested.
Indeed, some political strategists have argued that the recent ethno-religious crises in some parts of the country may have been designed by the aggrieved parties in the political system as political responses to the coercive methods being applied in trying to force the third term agenda on the people.

The Only Civilised Option Available for Obasanjo
With the recent position of the United States and the internal swelling opposition against the third term agenda, many political observers said the only option left for the President is to reverse his position and seek a safe landing rather than leading the country to another path of political logjam that might be difficult to manage and resolve. Going by the debates of different stakeholders in the Nigerian state, there appears not to be strong opposition against constitution amendment. The point of disagreement is the issue of third term. Obasanjo would have written his name in gold in the political history of the nation if he tackles the "iniquitous and unjust" sections of the constitution and handover to his successor in 2007.