Probably oil most likely.

Caricom Nations, Jamaica included Face Large Budget Deficits In 2006 But T&T Can Expect Mammoth Surplus
By By Tony Best

Mar 23, 2006, 21:56

Different economic strokes for different Caricom folks in 2006.

For while Trinidad and Tobago is expected to end 2006 swimming in cash and listed among the countries with the world's largest fiscal surpluses at least three countries in the region - Jamaica, Belize and Guyana can see their books awash in red ink, so much so that they would have the dubious distinction of being among the world's leaders when it comes to current account fiscal deficits.

That's the projection of the Economist Intelligence Unit, which stated that although America's $805 billion current account deficit last year was "the world's biggest in absolute terms" as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) it pales in comparison with the some of gaps in developing countries and emerging markets, including Jamaica, Belize and Guyana.

For instance, the Intelligence Unit which monitors economic trends around the globe has forecast that Jamaica's deficit would be about 12 percent of GDP while Guyana and Belize could reach almost 20 per cent, between 18-19 percent.

But the expected gap between revenue and expenditure in Jamaica, which matches Jordan's but was less than Ethiopia's would pale in comparison with Eritrea's whose deficit was forecast to reach 24.5 percent this year and Sao Tome' & Principe's 24.6 percent.

Iceland, Bulgaria, Mozambique and Bosnia are all expected to have larger deficits than Jamaica but their gaps would be smaller than those of Belize and Guyana.

Compare that forecast with the expected performance of energy rich Trinidad and Tobago and the difference would be obvious.

The twin island republic could end the year with one of the world's biggest surpluses, estimated in the vicinity of 22 percent of GDP.

"The biggest surpluses belong to countries such as Trinidad and Tobago with large energy exports," was the way it was put by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Heading that list would be Kuwait 42 percent surplus; Saudi Arabia and Qatar 24 percent and Trinidad and Tobago 22 per cent. Also among them are Singapore, Libya, Algeria, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Angola, Norway, Gabon, Switzerland and Namibia.