Joe Scarborough is a Republican commentator on MSNBC. If you are looking for contrasting views they do it the best. Fox is just a bullhorn for the administration.

That's the issue the polls have been off. He was losing in Iowa, then won by 19 points. He was winning in New Hampshire, but lost by 3. Nevada was right. Then in SC, he was supposed to win by 9. But won by 29.

He will win Illinois easy. The race is close in California. And if he can win another big state, he will be sitting pretty.

True @ dogon

Might be that Edwards is king/queen maker

POLITICAL CONNECTIONS
Nasty, Brutish, And Long

By Ronald Brownstein, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Friday, Jan. 25, 2008

LOS ANGELES -- Sooner or later, almost every presidential nominating campaign produces the sort of angry and emotional debate that Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama slugged through last Monday.


Unless Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can climb back off their emotional ledge, they will have plenty of time to damage each other -- and their party's prospects.



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At one New York City debate late in the 1984 race, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart battered each other so relentlessly that Jesse Jackson almost needed to physically separate them. In an especially heated 1992 encounter, Bill Clinton appeared ready to lean over and deck Jerry Brown.

The nominating system, by its nature, encourages such ferocity. Because the leading contenders usually differ only modestly on issues, they are compelled to exaggerate their differences and to magnify any blemish they find in their opponent's character or career. The campaign staffs, frazzled and tense, steadily lose respect for each other. The candidates, scraped raw by stress and exhaustion, grow less inclined to hand back the opposition research that their staff provides. Grievances mount, and the tension releases in bursts of personal antagonism -- like the Wal-Mart/slumlord exchange between Clinton and Obama on Monday -- that appear to come from a much deeper place than considerations of campaign strategy. They are as natural and fierce as a summer storm.

What ought to trouble Democrats is that their two leading candidates have reached this point at a time when a great many signs suggest their competition could continue long after the 22-state showdown on February 5 -- probably until Texas and Ohio vote on March 4. That means that unless the candidates can climb back off this emotional ledge, they will have plenty of time to damage each other -- and the party's prospects next fall. Nasty, brutish, and long is an ominous combination for Democrats.

Several factors now discourage an early resolution of the Democratic race, even if John Edwards is forced to quit, or is marginalized, after Saturday's primary in South Carolina. One is the party rule requiring states to divide their delegates proportionally among candidates who attract at least 15 percent of the vote. That system, which allows Clinton and Obama to accumulate delegates almost everywhere, "makes it virtually impossible to deliver a knockout blow on February 5," says a senior adviser to one contender.

An early knockout is also unlikely because Clinton and Obama are both so well funded. Money is tight, and each campaign undoubtedly wishes it still had some of the cash it lavished on Iowa and New Hampshire. But both candidates can raise enough to mount viable efforts almost indefinitely.

Mostly, an extended race seems likely because Clinton and Obama have assembled distinct, durable coalitions of support. Through the first contests, Clinton has consistently run better among core Democrats, particularly less affluent and older women. Obama has done best with the party's expanding constituencies -- independents, young people, upscale "knowledge-class" whites. In last Saturday's Nevada caucuses, Latinos preferred Clinton over Obama by greater than 2-to-1. South Carolina results appear likely to confirm a comparable advantage for Obama among African-Americans.

Assuming these patterns hold, most analysts give Clinton a slim edge: Although Obama's best groups are growing, hers probably remain a slightly larger share of the party. If Obama is to reverse that precarious balance, the key, ironically, could be Clinton's peers: well-educated, relatively affluent, middle-aged women. So far, these women have proved to be the party's most conflicted major group: They broke for Obama in Iowa but for Clinton in New Hampshire and Nevada.

These women seem torn between empathy and exhilaration. Many are drawn to Clinton's historic quest. One woman in a group that gathered to make campaign calls for Clinton in West Los Angeles earlier this week, on the 35th anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision, described Clinton's bid as a "landmark" for women. But other upscale women respond to the soaring message of political transformation that has attracted so many well-educated men to Obama.

Whether educated middle-aged women initially lean toward Clinton or Obama, though, it's difficult to imagine another group more likely to be disenchanted by hard-elbows politics. These women have already gotten their fill of petty squabbles by refereeing arguments between their children. Obama and Clinton might think twice before repeating this week's eruption.


Do you guys think Super tuesday will decide it for Democrats/Republicans. Obviously you dont know, nobody does. But just your gut feeling

@impact

If it does go to Ohio on March 4 what do you reckon for Obama there?

Exactly.

We need to be clear to our non-American Africans. The American Presidential race is not decided by popular votes. This is especially true about the nominations. This will all be under the table. The issue is that many people in the Democratic party do not like the Clintons and they feel that Hillary may be unelectable.

But everyone like Barack. Their eyes fill with tears at the prospect of electing a "Black" candidate and a chance to mask their racist views.

SuperTuesday will do absolutely nothing for the Democrats. It might decide things for the Republicans.

Hillary and Barack are going to convention. And there deals will be cut to nominate someone. Barack has about a 50% chance even if Hillary takes the lead in SuperTuesday.

Before this primary I was unaware that the democrats spilt thier delgates the way they do. Im convinced it wont be solved on Feb 5. I personally think if it goes to the convention that gives the Clintons the edge. Right now they run the Democratic Machine. I again point to the lead Hillary has with "Superdelegates" which shows that the establishment will back her in the end..Hillary is also trying to defy the rules of the DNC and take Michigan and Flordia delegates even after the party stripped those states from them (article below). The trojan horse is John Edwards, hes not dropping out which leads me to believe he has an agenda..

The Associated Press: Clinton: Give States Their Delegates


I couldnt say..Bill Clinton won the state twice, Id assume the Clinton name is in everyones minds. Last poll I seen hillary had the lead. Theres also rumors that Ted Strickland (our Governor) was on Hillarys short list for VP. Polls showed he wouldnt help in getting her elected but that hasnt stopped him from kissing her ass. (article below)

The Columbus Dispatch : Strickland not viewed as VP

Re: Edwads

Saw his concession speech and he seems like a stand up guy. Was talking abut the woman he met who didnt have electricity and who had to fully clothe her kids and put them together so that they could stay warm at night , hoping that nobody would find out and take the kids away. Heard that and I was like damnnnnnnn!!!!

Think he will make a good VP but he ought to knoc this presdetial bid on the head. Cant make a dent in your own ends means you are wasting your time

I guess Rock was right when he said ''Bush has ****ed up so bad he has made it hard for a white man to become president'' LOL

Don't fall for Edwards game.

I don't see how the Clintons get the edge. Hillary had better be in the lead after SuperTuesday. Period. If she is not, she will definitely lose to Barack. She is losing too many big endorsements. Those are the SuperDelegates.

People don't understand. At the convention, only one thing will be important. Who can win in the general election? Barack does well against every Republican candidate. Hillary loses against McCain. Her unlikeability factor is too high. She cannot attract new and independent voters.

That is something that Barack has always done.

Ted Kennedy Endorses Barack. . . .

Ted Kennedy to endorse Obama - Barack Obama News - MSNBC.com