The Coming Collapse of China: Good News or Bad News?

Vubundada_Kandaba · (#1 (**permalink**))

I sure do not care for China, not one bit and the sooner their power diminished the better for me. This article is based on the books "The Coming Collapse of China" by Gordon C.Chang and the book "Coming Collapse of China" by Paul Simon.

"Gordon Chang an analyst wrote that "China will not rule the world this century," said Chang, addressing an audience of scholars and students at Seoul National University earlier this month. "The tipping point will come in this decade, sometime before 2011. The Communist Party will be gone, replaced by a new system." According to the Financial Times of London, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji recently told a television audience in his country that the Chinese economy would have "collapsed" in 1998 without the state stimulus spending that is currently taking Beijing's government debt to record-high levels. Zhu Rongji is someone who chooses his words carefully, which makes the term "collapse" alarming, although not perhaps, in retrospect, surprising.

China, while appearing to be guided by a robust economy, is led by a Party in disarray, a bland posse of top officials that are slowly being replaced by even blander ones. Chang pointed out that since change in China moves "at continental drift speeds," political transitions take time and little gets done meanwhile. Governance gets put on hold. But problems with the Party are just the tip of the iceberg. High profile corruption has China rotting from the inside out. The nation is now unable to wean itself from unsustainable policies, he warned, launching into a daunting list of problems that make China look like someone in both an intensive care unit and bankruptcy court.

The critical issue, says Chang, is the weakening financial situation stemming from bad loans. Even with good advice from U.S. and international bankers, the Chinese managed to put together a banking system that is the worst of all possible worlds. Hidden subsidies and bailouts have added up to the tune of an estimated $2 trillion of debt, which Chang says the government will not own up to. The total number of defaulted loans is nothing short of a banking crisis and reforms are making things worse, he explained. In addition, since the 1979 implementation of a one-child policy, China has increasingly become an aging population. As a consequence, social security is a huge problem that is just now rearing its ugly head. Chang cited numbers in the range of $850 billion to $1 trillion needed immediately to meet its pension obligations this year".

umbrarchist · (#2 (**permalink**))

I can't fin the book by Simon but Changs book is 7 years old. It looks like the US is beating China to the collapse punch though.

umbra

ORGNLEGYPTN · (#3 (**permalink**))

I think this info just underscores how China needs Africa, as much as Africa needs China. The rlationship can be very mutually beneficial for both parties for centuries to come.

China didn't come to Africa like the West and Islam did--killing, torturing and enslaving, but I still hope Africa realizes her prime position in the world today and will accept nothing less than a partnership of equals with any entities she trades, or deals with.

Mansa · (#4 (**permalink**))

Quote:

Originally Posted by ORGNLEGYPTN

I think this info just underscores how China needs Africa, as much as Africa needs China. The rlationship can be very mutually beneficial for both parties for centuries to come.

China didn't come to Africa like the West and Islam did--killing, torturing and enslaving, but I still hope Africa realizes her prime position in the world today and will accept nothing less than a partnership of equals with any entities she trades, or deals with.

China has it's own history to deal with in its region, Tibet, Taiwan etc. However I agree with your statement.

newstyle · (#5 (**permalink**))

China's role in Africa newsnight report

ORGNLEGYPTN · (#6 (**permalink**))

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mansa

China has it's own history to deal with in its region, Tibet, Taiwan etc. However I agree with your statement.

True dat.

But we all know that you have to deal and trade to survive in this world as a Nation.

And when I look back, compared to the alternatives, China looks pretty good.

I not sure about Tibet, but Taiwan is/was a part of China so it's not like they are designing on another's people's space.

I also like what the Russians have done for the poor people of the earth, though they have more emperialistic baggage than the Chinese do.